Download Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer by James Shinn PDF

By James Shinn

The target of a negotiated peace in Afghanistan has been firmly embraced via lots of the capability events to a treaty. in spite of the fact that, arriving at an contract concerning the sequencing, timing, and prioritization of peace phrases is perhaps tough, given the divergence within the events' pursuits and ambitions. The U.S. target

in those negotiations may be a sturdy and peaceable Afghanistan that neither hosts nor collaborates with terrorists.

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7 Eight in ten Afghans express confidence in the Afghan National Army, and only a slightly lower number express confidence in their national police force. 8 It is not difficult to explain Afghan optimism. Since 2001, the country’s gross domestic product has tripled. Ten years ago, there were fewer than 1 million children in school—almost all boys. In fall 2011, more than 8 million children will attend school—one-third of them 6 CBS News/New York Times Poll, June 2011. Retrieved from the iPOLL Databank, The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut, on July 7, 2011.

This shift was achieved without the American or Iraqi governments having to make any concessions affecting the nature of the Iraqi state or the constitutional order that the United States has helped establish there. Reconciliation, in contrast, would launch a process of mutual accommodation among two competing Afghan leaderships with very 12 Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer different visions of the Afghan state, inevitably opening the prospect of substantive trades-offs that make both American officials and many Afghans uneasy, even apprehensive.

It matters a great deal to a negotiating strategy how efficient, unitary, or fractured is the decisionmaking of the participants, and how broad and deep is the consensus within a given government on policy goals in Afghanistan. This is similar but not identical to the strong state/weak state distinction often made by political scientists. The low level of coherence in most of the actors in an Afghan peace process will be a seriously complicating factor in orchestrating a positive outcome that meets American objectives.

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